The Math Behind Moonshots
How to shoot for the moon and win
Wouldn’t it be fabulous if the most wonderful unlikely thing happened to you?
If your novel got published
or your start-up got funded
or Keanu Reeves blew you a kiss through his car window?
That’d be a good day.
But what are the odds? How likely are you to hit a moonshot? Is it ever worth trying?
I’m glad you asked. In this essay, we’ll use probability to develop a strategy for taking moonshots that you can apply to your business, career and life.
I’ve loosely structured my life around these ideas. They won’t turn your galaxy upside down tomorrow. But given time, these ideas will change your life.
Perhaps it’ll work out so well that you feel your life needs no changing at all.
Let’s get started.
The Numbers
In this section I’ll use probability to generate the odds of succeeding at various levels of moonshots. In the next section, I’ll use these estimates to create three key criteria for building a life around moonshots.
